NicaNotes

November 20, 2025

By John Perry

[Nicaragua-based John Perry is with the Nicaragua Solidarity Coalition and writes for MR Online, the London Review of Books, FAIR and Covert Action, among others. This article was first published in Popular Resistance.]

Introduction by Jill Clark-Golub: Why are the Honduran elections important for Nicaragua–Honduras is Nicaragua’s strongest ally in Central America. While Nicaragua maintains respectful relations with all of its Central American neighbors, regardless of ideology, the Xiomara Castro administration in Honduras is the only one that shares Nicaragua’s commitment to combating poverty, imperialism, and neoliberalism. The US government would love to get rid of that fragile democracy, and with elections at the end of this month, this is particularly vulnerable time for Honduras. If the US succeeds in engineering a change of direction there, it could lead to a consensus to expel Nicaragua from the Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA). And a right-wing Honduran government would most likely support Washington’s military aggression in the region, bringing the threat right to Nicaragua’s border (where it was in the 1980s). This is why it is very important to follow developments in Honduras.

Trump’s gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean grabs the headlines, while quieter moves to destabilize other progressive Latin American governments go unnoticed by corporate media. A key case is a plot that would create chaos enabling a neoliberal candidate to be declared victor, with Washington’s connivance, in Honduras’s elections on November 30.

At stake is four more years of progressive government or a return to the neoliberalism that prevailed after the US-backed military coup in 2009. The electoral defeat of progressive parties in Ecuador and Bolivia earlier this year, and the uncertain chances of progressive candidate Jeannette Jara in Chile’s elections this month and next, mean that Honduras is a crucial test.

Honduras has a history of rigged elections since the overthrow of Manuel Zeleya’s left-leaning government in 2009. The left was fraudulently denied power in 2013 and 2017, only winning in 2021 because Xiomara Castro’s majority was overwhelming. Although popular, Castro is constitutionally limited to a single term.

Now that her successor, Libre party candidate Rixi Moncada, has only a narrow poll lead, the opposition sees a new opportunity to seize power by manipulating the election results.

In theory, it should be no contest for Moncada, given the achievements of incumbent President Castro. Moncada is closely linked to her, having been minister of finance and then defense in her administration.

After inheriting broken health and education systems and soaring poverty in the wake of the Covid pandemic, President Castro has succeeded in reducing poverty levels from 74 per cent to 63 per cent in four years. In an unprecedented program of public investment, her government has built eight new hospitals and renovated over 5,200 schools. Not long ago Honduras was one of the world’s most dangerous countries, but in four years her government has cut the homicide rate to its lowest since 2013. Poor inner-city barrios, long afflicted by gang violence, now cope with thousands of returning migrants, fleeing US repression and needing jobs: Castro quickly created centers to give them government help.

Honduras is still a country where Washington’s influence is very strong. While Castro has had a progressive foreign policy, cultivating China’s support, aggressively challenging Israel’s genocide in Gaza and building strong relations with the region’s progressive governments, she has had to be aware of the US embassy’s continuous efforts to undermine her.

President Castro has also faced a divided congress and hostile mayors in many municipalities. The highly militarized police forces and the army have strong ties to the US. Further, a corrupt legal system and the abiding influence of Honduras’s oligarchic, very wealthy families who control much of the country’s industry, commerce and agriculture challenge popular rule. That Castro has secured her many achievements under all these constraints is remarkable.

However, the opposition forces have come together in an attempt to deny a Moncada victory. Leaked audio recordings, which appear to be genuine, showed a leading member of the National Election Council conspiring with an opposition leader and a senior army officer to interfere with the transmission of election results during the likely heated atmosphere on the night of the count.

By focusing on early results which would appear to indicate Moncada’s defeat, the plan is to repeat what happened in 2017. Then a premature announcement of the US-backed candidate’s victory was immediately endorsed by the US embassy. While supposedly independent election observers might call this out, some of them appear to have been planted by the opposition, and there are urgent calls for the observers themselves to be “observed.”

A prequel of what might happen on the night of November 30 occurred on November 9, when the electoral council held a trial run of its system to collect and transmit voting tallies. The trial partially failed, leading to justifiable accusations from the Libre Party that a repeat of this failure on election night would create exactly the circumstances the opposition needs to execute fraud.

The context of the US imposing its hegemony over Latin America is critical. Economist Jeffrey Sachs, in an interview about Trump’s massive military build-up in the Caribbean, notes that regime change is a “core tool of US foreign policy.” The overt military attacks on Venezuela and the more covert ones planned for Honduras are part of the same imperial game plan.

Trump’s main target, Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro, has been designated a narco-terrorist, with a $50 million bounty on his head. A possible secondary target, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro and his “cronies,” have just been sanctioned by the US for failing to curb drug trafficking. Needless to say, the allegations are a flimsy justification for Trump’s warmongering.

An attack on Venezuela would further damage Cuba, long supported by Venezuela. The Trump administration is also considering imposing 100 per cent tariffs on US imports from Nicaragua, spearheaded by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The irony, if regime-change were to be successful in Honduras, is that it would likely restore the narcostate that existed prior to Castro’s presidency. This led to the notorious former president Juan Orlando Hernández being extradited to the US where he is serving a 45-year sentence for drug trafficking offences. The casualness with which electoral interference is being considered is just one of many examples that show up Trump’s war on narcoterrorism as a sham.

Briefs

By Nan McCurdy

Benjamín Linder and Heroes of Bocay University Center to Be Inaugurated

The Co-President of the Republic, Rosario Murillo, announced the inauguration of a University Center that will bear the name of Benjamín Linder and will also honor his comrades Sergio Hernández and Pablo Rosales, Heroes of Bocay, all killed by the Contra in April 1987. “The universities are preparing to continue with our scholarship program, awarding thousands of university degrees throughout the country. Also, we will be inaugurating in the coming days one of the university centers which will be named after the hero from the United States who was in Nicaragua generating well-being with engineering works in water issues, Benjamin Linder,” she said. “We will be opening a University Center bearing his name and the names of the two Heroes of Bocay who were also killed by the counterrevolution alongside Benjamin decades ago. But their memory, their legacy, is with us. It lives on in our blessed Nicaragua and in the struggle for peace, security and well-being for Nicaraguan families.” (El 19, 13 November 2025)

Gross International Reserves Increase by US$122 Million

On November 12 the Central Bank reported that gross international reserves (GIR) closed October 2025 at US$7.9 billion, an increase of US$121.9 million over the previous month, consolidating sustained growth that raises the coverage of the monetary base to 4.1 times. According to the Monetary Indicators note published by the BCN, the increase was mainly driven by net purchases of foreign currency by the financial system, the transfer of resources from the General Treasury of the Republic, and monetary deposits from the non-financial public sector. This historic level contrasts sharply with past figures: in 1996, GIR barely reached US$77.6 million; in 2001, they closed at US$211.2 million; and in 2006, they amounted to US$859 million. The current jump represents a growth of around 10 times in less than two decades. (Informe Pastran, 12 November 2025)

Good Year for Sugar Production

The sugar harvest begins on November 17 where the country’s four sugar mills expect to produce 17.13 million quintals [hundred weights] of sugar, a figure that could rise later, Mario Amador, general manager of Empresa de Servicios Azucareros S.A. told TV Noticias on Channel 2. “This 2025 has been a good year for the sugar sector, as there were no adverse weather events, so the cane has good color and flavor, which is why a good sugar year is anticipated,” he said. Exports of 500,000 tons of sugar are expected to go to markets such as the United States with a quota of 30,800 tons and China with a quota of 50,000 tons. (Informe Pastran, 12 November 2025)

China and Nicaragua United for Health

From November 10 to 12, Nicaragua welcomed the visit to the Port of Corinto of the hospital ship Arca de la Ruta de la Seda (Ark of the Silk Road), as a sign of the “unconditional solidarity and brotherhood of the People’s Republic of China.” During these days, 1,125 residents of the department of Chinandega received medical care. Chinese medical professionals, together with Nicaraguan specialists, provided care in pediatrics, gynecology, prenatal care, internal medicine, orthopedics, and urology. They also performed eye, ear, nose, throat, heart, kidney, and digestive system examinations, as well as assessments for infectious diseases. Surgeries and ultrasounds were also performed, and traditional Chinese medicine consultations provided. Specialists from China and Nicaragua held a meeting to exchange experiences on topics such as robotic surgery, chronic kidney disease, congenital heart disease, maternal-fetal health, breast cancer, and heart disease, strengthening the capabilities of our doctors to continue caring for the lives of Nicaragua’s people. See photos: https://canal6.com.ni/familias-de-chinandega-reciben-atencion-medica-en-el-buque-hospital-arca-de-la-ruta-de-la-seda/ (Channel 6, 14 November 2025)

New Miguel “Chocorrón” Buitrago Soccer Stadium Inaugurated

On November 15, Nicaraguan youth took center stage at the inauguration of the new Miguel “Chocorrón” Buitrago Soccer Stadium, a modern facility located in the heart of Managua that marks the first section of the Dignidad Sports Complex, designed to host national and international competitions. The site adds to the extensive sports infrastructure that the Sandinista government has made available to Nicaraguans, a sports venue with a capacity for 2,000 people and FIFA certification. The authorities emphasized that the main objective is to provide young people with the tools and spaces they need to dream big and reach their maximum athletic potential. The stadium has modern features including an excellent playing field, bleachers and lighting, locker rooms, ticket office, parking, and everything necessary to provide safety and comfort to players and fans. It is a facility designed for the use and enjoyment of all families. See photos: https://www.el19digital.com/articulos/ver/170918-juventud-nicaraguense-protagoniza-entrega-del-nuevo-estadio-de-futbol-miguel-chocorron-buitrago (El 19, 15 November 2025)

Government Reaffirms Principles on Nuclear Weapons at Mexico Meeting

The Nicaraguan government reaffirmed that no activity prohibited by the provisions of the Treaty of Tlatelolco on nuclear weapons has taken place on its territory. It also maintains its adherence to the principles that make up international law, as a contribution to international development, peace, and security, which the Nicaraguan authorities uphold. Flavio Roberto Bonzanini, Secretary General of the Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean (OPANAL), invited the Nicaraguan government to participate in the 29th Session of the OPANAL General Conference held on November 13, 2025, at the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs. During the meeting, Bonzanini presented a report on his administration during the 2020-2025 period. This organization is based in Mexico and is the only one in the world dedicated entirely to achieving nuclear disarmament and the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Ambassador Juan Carlos Gutiérrez Madrigal participated in the meeting on behalf of the people and government of Nicaragua. (La Primerisima, 15 November 2025)

IMF Recognizes Sound Macroeconomic Policies

The following is taken from the International Monetary Funds “Mission Concluding Statement” which describes the preliminary findings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff at the end of an official staff mission or visit to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement. A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) visited Managua from November 3-14. The team met with Central Bank President Ovidio Reyes, Finance Minister Oscar Mojica Aguirre, other senior officials, and representatives from the private sector and the international community. Here are the excerpts from the IMF analysis of Nicaragua’s economy:

“According to the IMF, economic activity remains resilient supported by sound macroeconomic policies, amid a shifting global policy landscape. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.9 percent in the first half of 2025, as exports increased strongly despite global trade policy uncertainty, buoyed by external demand and favorable terms of trade. Remittances growth remained significant, as migrants increased their transfers to Nicaragua due to tightening immigration policies in the U.S. Reserves coverage remains ample and adequate; gross international reserves reached US$7.5 billion (7.9 months of imports) in September 2025. Inflation remains low, the fiscal position is strong, the central government deposits are substantial, and the financial sector is reportedly well capitalized with adequate liquidity and low non-performing loans.

“The mission welcomes the authorities’ continued commitment to safeguarding fiscal sustainability and building buffers while supporting growth…. Monetary policy should continue preserving price and external stability and the Central Bank of Nicaragua (BCN) should continue strengthening monetary policy transmission…. Implementation of the recent changes in the financial legal framework would strengthen the system’s stability and resilience, and efforts are needed to further strengthen crisis preparedness…. Efforts to strengthen economic governance, especially the anti-corruption framework, should continue.”

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, the poverty rate in Nicaragua is approximately 12.5% using the international poverty line of $3.65 per day (2023 data). This figure indicates that about 12.5% of the population lives on less than $3.65 per day. See report: https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2025/11/18/cs-nicaragua-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission