NicaNotes: Why Nicaragua is not Washington’s next war – Yet

NicaNotes

February 5, 2026

John Perry and Roger D. Harris

[Nicaragua-based writer John Perry is published in the London Review of Books, FAIR, CovertAction and elsewhere. Roger D. Harris is with the Task Force on the Americas and the US Peace Council. Both are members of the Nicaragua Solidarity Coalition. This article was first published in Popular Resistance on January 22, 2026.]

Since the US invasion of Venezuela on January 3rd and the abduction of President Nicolás Maduro, Nicaragua’s opposition figures – who enthusiastically identified with their confederates in Venezuela – have hoped that regime-change efforts in Caracas would encourage Washington to destroy Nicaragua’s Sandinista government.

Republican senator Rick Scott thinks now is the time to “fix” Nicaragua as well Cuba. Commentator James Bosworth, a cheerleader for US imperialism, asks, “Why hasn’t Trump gone after Ortega in Nicaragua?”

Earlier this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Cuba “enemies of humanity.” (Photo: Department of State’s Facebook page)

Such speculation is unsurprising. Both Trump administrations have endorsed the designation of Nicaragua, as well as Venezuela and Cuba, as an “unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States.” Trump’s former adviser John Bolton described the three countries in 2018 as a “troika of tyranny,” while his current Secretary of State Marco Rubio calls them “enemies of humanity.”

A few days after the attack on Caracas, Trump said Cuba was “ready to fall” and should “make a deal … before it’s too late.” Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel responded: “No one dictates what we do.” Along with Cuba, the governments of Mexico and Colombia were warned that they might be “next” in Trump’s sights, as he maintains his huge military deployment in the Caribbean and continues his so-called war on “narcoterror.”

Clearly, Venezuela and Cuba are under the greatest US pressure. Neither Trump nor Rubio has included Nicaragua in their follow-up threats, but the country is not being ignored.

The court indictment against Maduro accuses him of leading a regional drug-trafficking network that ran through Central America. Although Nicaragua is not specifically named, opposition media were quick to claim that the Sandinista government was being denounced. Trump himself, commenting on Honduras’s November 30 election in Truth Social, seemed to suggest this when he asked: “Will Maduro and his Narcoterrorists take over another country like they have taken over Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela?”

In reality, unlike its neighbors, Nicaragua is largely free of drug-related violence. Its army operates what it calls a “retaining wall” (muro de contención) against drugs transiting the country, and regularly publicizes drug seizures. Despite this, the State Department classifies Nicaragua as a “transit country” for narcotics and the US Drug Enforcement Administration withdrew its officials in 2025, claiming poor cooperation from authorities.

On January 14, the security minister in neighboring El Salvador (a Trump ally ) accused Nicaragua of allowing a drug shipment worth over $9 million to cross the waters between the countries by boat. Nicaragua strongly denied the allegation, pointing out that it is among the safest countries in the region and cooperates with El Salvador in dealing with narcoterrorism, including extraditing members of Salvadoran drug-trafficking gangs arrested in Nicaragua.

Nicaragua continues to be unjustly singled out for criticism on issues beyond drugs. In July 2025, Nicaragua’s reputation as a safe country was implicitly recognized even by the US Department of Homeland Security, which acknowledged that it has become “a worldwide tourist destination.” Numerous articles, including in the New York Times and Travel and Tour World, encouraged people to visit.

But, as Nicaragua-based commentator Becca Renk points out, this has drawn “punitive measures” from US authorities, including sanctions on tour operators (allegedly for facilitating migration to the US), advisories warning against Nicaragua’s supposed dangers, and more. “Despite a flurry of positive reports in the travel press, U.S. officials say Americans should avoid Nicaragua because it’s an authoritarian regime,” the New York Times said in June 2025, contradicting its earlier recommendation to visit the country.

Perhaps the most bizarre allegation is that Nicaragua’s celebrated religious traditions are threatened by its government. In December, reports appeared claiming that bibles could no longer be brought into the country based on a notice supposedly photographed in a Costa Rican bus terminal. The story was widely repeated, with the US Commission on International Religious Freedom reporting that not only are bibles banned, but so is praying in public. The stories fitted the State Department’s broader narrative of religious repression.

But the reports were completely false. Nicaraguan churches confirmed there is no such ban, the bus company’s advice to travelers does not mention bibles, and farcical attempts by a pair of Youtubers to prove that the ban exists proved fruitless.

Nevertheless, Christian Solidarity Worldwide, based in the UK, which posted the original claim about the ban, ignores requests to remove it.

More seriously, December also brought a heavily biased report from the US Trade Representative. The report accused Nicaragua of “labor rights violations,” based largely on evidence from Nicaraguan opposition groups, many funded by US sources such as the National Endowment for Democracy. The Trade Representative argued that Nicaragua should be expelled from the regional trade treaty and that punitive, 100 per cent tariffs should be imposed on its exports to the US.

Had these sanctions been applied, they would have drastically affected Nicaragua’s exports and employment in many key areas of the economy. Fortunately, after lobbying by US businesses heavily invested in Nicaragua, they were watered down considerably.

However, similar damage could result from federal legislation. Representatives Chris Smith and María Elvira Salazar have introduced the Restoring Sovereignty and Human Rights in Nicaragua Act of 2026. If passed, it would trigger “targeted sanctions” on Nicaraguan businesses, block new US investment and further restrict access to international finance.

Other proposed legislation, introduced by Senator Rick Scott, would link sanctions against Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. All four countries (in the case of Bolivia, in the recent past) have been examples of alternative models of government that prioritize the interests of the poor, not those of international capital.

Nicaragua’s trade is closely linked to that of its neighbors. Honduras, under Xiomara Castro, has been a close ally. But this month she hands over the presidency to neoliberal Nasry Asfura, who “won” the country’s recent election following Trump’s blatant interference. Nicaragua has been left as perhaps the only progressive government between Mexico and Colombia. Nevertheless, Nicaragua can probably count on some reluctance in Central America to ostracize a country located on key trade routes and which has a crucial role in regional electricity distribution. Indeed, Asfura has already disappointed anti-Sandinistas by promising good bilateral relations.

Some commentators, such as Politico’s Nahal Toosi note that Nicaragua “is oddly missing from Trump’s list” of targets now that Washington is further asserting hegemonic power in the Western Hemisphere.

Justifying intervention on the basis of fighting “narcoterror,” however, is even more difficult in Nicaragua’s case than it was for Venezuela. Claims that President Daniel Ortega is linked to Nicolás Maduro’s fictitious Cartel de los Soles are unsupported by Washington officials. Politico cited one anonymous US official who said that “Nicaragua is cooperating with us to stop drug trafficking and fight criminal elements in their territory.”

Nicaragua is a lower-middle-income country which, unlike Venezuela, lacks oil or other strategic resources coveted by the US. Its 1979 revolution, the subsequent US-backed “Contra” war and more than four decades of military and economic pressure from the US, including a coup attempt in 2018, have prepared Nicaragua. Resistance to any overt military attempt to overthrow the Sandinista government would be massive. Older Nicaraguans recall 16 years of neoliberal rule after the Sandinistas lost power in 1990, when public services were decimated.

Since returning to office in 2007, the Sandinista government has massively invested in hospitals, schools and housing; the country is free of the high crime levels that bedevil its neighbors. Unlike Cuba and Venezuela, its economy has not so far been heavily damaged by US coercive measures.

Furthermore, Nicaragua’s opposition groups are deeply divided, enjoy little popular support, and offer vague promises of “democracy” that amount to a return to neoliberalism. They have little currency among Trump’s Florida base, fixated on regime change in Venezuela and Cuba. As Juan Gonzalez, a former Latin America aide to President Biden, told Politico: “The lesson from Nicaragua is: Don’t matter too much, don’t embarrass Washington and don’t become a domestic political issue.”

Trump and his advisers may also have learned a lesson from kidnapping Venezuela’s head of state: it failed to remove the government and instead strengthened its popular support. Pro-US Venezuelan politicians like Maria Corina Machado, who promised Washington that they would have public backing, were deceitful. If they had been put in charge, the country would likely have descended into chaos. This was true for Venezuela, but it would also be true for Cuba and Nicaragua.

Nicaragua’s respite, however, is unlikely to be long-lasting. Venezuela, because of its strength and leading role, has been the primary target. Striking Venezuela kills two birds with one stone. Every blow against it is also directly hits Cuba, which is far more dependent on Venezuela than is Nicaragua. But if both Venezuela and Cuba are significantly weakened by the imperial siege, Nicaragua will be ever more isolated and riper for attack. In short, it is not so much that Nicaragua has escaped the attention of US imperialism, but that its time has not yet come.

Briefs

By Nan McCurdy

Special Education School Inaugurated in Masaya

On behalf of the government, the 19th of July Sandinista Youth Organization held the inauguration of the Melania Lacayo Special Education School in the city of Masaya on January 28. This is a new facility for children with disabilities located in the La Reforma neighborhood, north of the Cristóbal Rugama Educational Center. The school has all the amenities adapted to the conditions of the students for their safety, mobility, and comfort, such as access ramps and perimeter walls. It also has spacious classrooms, sensory stimulation rooms, a technology area, and workshops for cooking, crafts, and music. During her speech, Presidential Delegate Camila Ortega Murillo emphasized that the inauguration of the center restores families’ rights to access quality special education, highlighting the ongoing support for communities and the focus on building a peaceful and sovereign future for the country. The center’s director, Scarlett Sánchez, said that the current enrollment is 267 students and that the school serves children with autism and multiple, intellectual, visual, and hearing disabilities. She noted that the teaching staff includes 42 teachers who receive ongoing training to ensure specialized care. See photos: https://radiolaprimerisima.com/2026/01/28/inauguran-escuela-de-educacion-especial-en-masaya/ (La Primerisima, 28 January 2026)

Nicaragua Ends January 2026 with 83% Renewable Energy  

The Minister of Energy and Mines, Salvador Mansell, reported that Nicaragua ended January 2026 with 83% of the energy consumed coming from renewable sources, thanks to high wind, solar, and biomass generation during the month. “It was unthinkable back in 2007,” he emphasized, recalling that at that time the country depended mainly on fossil fuels and suffered prolonged rationing. Mansell stressed that this percentage places Nicaragua above many countries worldwide in the use of clean energy. “Right now, if we mention this figure of 83 percent renewables, few countries are achieving it, and we are talking globally,” he said. The Sandinista government allocates approximately $65 million per year exclusively to the maintenance of the national electricity system. This figure covers the maintenance of 50,000 kilometers of transmission and distribution lines, as well as service to the doorsteps of nearly 1.4 million connected homes. “In order to guarantee this work, all these investments must be taken care of, because if you neglect them, then the situation gets worse,” Mansell explained. The comprehensive plan includes the maintenance of power plants and substations, which have increased from 54 in 2007 to (Informe Pastran, 2 February 2026)

Public Universities Begin Academic Year

Public universities nationwide began the 2026 academic year on Tuesday, Feb. 3. At the National Autonomous University of Nicaragua in Managua (UNAN-Managua), thousands of morning shift students began their classes. UNAN-Managua this year is welcoming 22,000 high school graduates who qualified for one of the 59 available degree programs through the school’s admission process. This figure is in addition to the 53,351 students who enrolled in 2025. The UNAN also has its original university campus in Leon and branches in the departmental capitals of Estelí, Matagalpa, Chontales and Carazo.

Within the national higher education plan, the University in the Countryside Program (UNICAM) stands out. In this program the children of workers and peasants in rural areas enjoy scientific and technical training through courses relevant to the development and well-being of their communities. UNAN-Managua provides dormitories for young people from remote communities, who also receive food, health, and other benefits that contribute to their overall well-being. (La Primerisima, 3 February, 2026)

MINED Inaugurates 27 New Schools

The Minister of Education, Mendy Arauz, announced on January 30 that 27 new educational centers were inaugurated at the start of the 2026 school year in localities throughout the country. Arauz said that the inauguration of this new school year was a national celebration for the entire educational community. “As part of the program for this school year, we have begun the call for applications and auditions for choirs, orchestras, marimba and percussion ensembles in schools with the aim of strengthening arts and cultural education,” she said. During the week, progress was made in teacher training through an online course on the use and mastery of digital tools aimed at educational advisors, principals, and teachers. Work was also done on the editing and publication of audiovisual resources with content related to English language teaching, teleclass capsules, and values practices. (La Primerisima, 30 January 2026)

Government Delivers Toys to 16,000 children in 276 Child Centers

The Sandinista government delivered toys and hygiene kits to 276 Child Development Centers (CDIs) nationwide, benefiting more than 16,000 children aged 0 to 6, restoring their right to recreation, play, and a happy childhood. A spokesperson said, “The toys strengthen the educational environments of the CDIs, promoting learning through play, early stimulation, and coexistence among our beloved children of the revolution.” See photos: https://radiolaprimerisima.com/2026/01/31/gobierno-entrega-juguetes-a-16-mil-ninos-en-276-cdi/ (La Primerisima,31 January 2026)

Exports Exceed US$8 Billion

Nicaragua closed 2025 with a new record in foreign trade, registering total exports of US$8.7 billion, exceeding the US$8 billion mark for the first time, according to the annual report of the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Trade (MIFIC). This represents a 16.0% increase over the US$7.5 billion recorded in 2024, driven mainly by general regime exports (i.e., standard customs procedure exports), which reached US$5.3 billion, an increase of 27.2%. Free trade zone exports contributed US$3.4 billion, achieving a growth of 1.8%. Total imports amounted to US$12.4 billion, an increase of 7.9%, which reduced the trade deficit to US$3.6 billion, 7.3% less than in 2024.

According to the MIFIC report, the main products exported were raw gold, which consolidated its position as the main export product with US$1.97 billion, 22.7% of the total, exporting 19.9 metric tons, setting another historic milestone. Fifty-one percent of this gold was sent to the US; 44% to Canada; 4% to Switzerland; and 1% to the European Union. This is followed by garments, with US$1.7 billion, 19.7% of total exports, with 82% going to the US, 16% to Central America, 1% to the European Union, and 1% to Mexico. Beef was next with US$961 million and 142,512 tons exported, an increase of 27.1%, with 43% sent to the US, 35% to the Central American market, 19% to Mexico, and 3% to other markets. Green coffee exports totaled US$918.4 million, an increase of 75.1% with the principal markets being the EU with 41% and the US with 36%.

The official MIFIC report notes that the United States remains the main partner with $4 billion, accounting for 46.3% of the total and an increase of 10.9% compared to 2024. Central America ranked second with $1.45 billion, accounting for 16.7% of total exports and an increase of 6.5%. The report emphasizes that market diversification strengthens the resilience of the export sector in the face of external fluctuations and opens up new opportunities for traditional and non-traditional products. (La Primerisima, 29 January 2026)

Nicaragua Denounces Israel’s West Bank Actions

Nicaragua’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Jaime Hermida, denounced the establishment of new illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank as illegal colonial actions that openly seek to destroy the contiguity of Palestinian territory. It also excludes the possibility of a viable and independent Palestinian state, eroding what little confidence remains in negotiations that could lead to a just outcome for that people. The United Nations Security Council held its quarterly debate on the situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian question, on January 28 under the presidency of the Federal Republic of Somalia. The meeting served as a forum for deliberation to assess the political and humanitarian situation in the Middle East region.

Hermida spoke in his capacity as vice-chair of the United Nations Committee on the Exercise of the Inalienable Rights of the Palestinian People.

In his speech, the Nicaraguan representative emphasized Israel’s recent laws that strip the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) of its privileges and immunities. The diplomat highlighted the importance of this agency as an actor in saving the lives of millions of Palestinian refugees. He also expressed rejection of Israel’s decision to cancel the permits of dozens of international NGOs, preventing them from continuing to operate in the occupied Palestinian territory and further depriving the population of much-needed assistance. Hermida reiterated Israel’s obligations as specified in the General Assembly resolution adopted on December 12, 2025, which strongly supports the advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice regarding its presence and activities in the occupied Palestinian territory. (La Primerisima, 29 January 2026)

Guisell Morales Appointed New Chargé d’Affaires in Washington

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on January 29 that it has made changes to some of Nicaragua’s embassies and missions. Foreign Minister Denis Moncada Colindres will resume his duties at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Nicaragua, while Guisell Morales Echaverry will take over as Chargé d’Affaires at the Nicaraguan Embassy in Washington. Valezka Fiorella López Herrera has been accredited as Ambassador to the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Daysi Torres Bosques has been accredited as Ambassador to the Republic of Cuba. Omara Saraí Orozco Pérez has been accredited as Minister Counselor of the Nicaraguan Embassy in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. (La Primerisima, 29 January 2026)

Former Vice President Jaime Morales Carazo to be Honored

During a formal session of the National Assembly, former Vice President Jaime Morales Carazo will receive the Miguel Obando Bravo Medal of Reconciliation and Peace, Co-President Rosario Murillo announced on January 30. During her address on Channel 4 Television, the leader said that this is in recognition of his merits as a magnificent example of the culture of reconciliation and peace of the Nicaraguan people and state. Rosario said that Morales Carazo will also receive the Rubén Darío Order of Cultural Independence for his many contributions to the history, culture, and preservation of objects that represent the experiences of the Nicaraguan people. Morales Carazo is currently Nicaragua’s representative to the Central American Parliament. (La Primerisima, 30 January 2026)

Nicaragua Undergoing a Revolution in All Sports

Between 2025 and 2029, the Sandinista government will have built and remodeled 10 soccer stadiums throughout the country, presidential advisor Maurice Ortega Murillo said during the opening ceremony of the 41st CONCACAF Ordinary Congress in Managua. [The Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football, abbreviated as CONCACAF, is one of FIFA’s six continental governing bodies for association football (soccer).] Ortega that these are first-class sports facilities with the capacity to host national and international events. He made special mention of the Estadio Dignidad Nacional, which will open in 2028 and become the country’s main soccer facility. “All these new facilities will strengthen national talent and position our country as a sporting benchmark on the region’s soccer map,” he said. “Although our country does not have a long tradition of soccer like other countries in the region, our soccer has made significant strides in terms of organization, training processes, sports facilities, quality, competitiveness, and, of course, popularity,” Ortega confirmed. “A well-coordinated effort between the Nicaraguan Soccer Federation (FENIFUT), national authorities, and Nicaraguan youth has allowed our country to achieve increasingly better results at the club level and in national competitions for both men and women,” he added. See photos: https://radiolaprimerisima.com/2026/02/01/nicaragua-vive-una-revolucion-en-todos-los-deportes/ (La Primerisima, 1 February, 2026)