NicaNotes

May 14, 2026

By John Perry

[Writer John Perry lives in Masaya, Nicaragua, and publishes in the London Review of Books, FAIR, CovertAction and elsewhere. This article was first published in Popular Resistance.]

In the run-up to the 2024 election, Donald Trump promised “We will close the border. We will stop the invasion of illegals into our country.” A year later, it was a promise he claimed to have kept. But exactly who are the “illegals”? Loose definitions and manipulated statistics tell a very misleading story about migrants from Latin America.

Earlier this year, a chart appeared on social media sites like X claiming that during President Biden’s four years in office, 8% of Nicaragua’s population entered the US illegally. The chart displayed comparable percentages for five other Latin American countries — Cuba, Haiti, Honduras, Venezuela and Guatemala. It appeared to confirm Trump’s claims that “Biden’s open border policies” had attracted people in such huge numbers that their countries had lost significant proportions of their populations.

The chart in question, with 4.6 million views on X, was the work of data scientist Jonatan Pallesen, so it might have been considered statistically accurate. Let’s look at how it was produced.

Pallesen used publicly available data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) showing numbers of CBP “encounters” with people entering the country. An “encounter” can refer to a person who crossed the border unlawfully or who claimed asylum at a border post. But it can also refer to someone who arrived at the border and was turned away by officials, failing to enter the US at all. Furthermore, someone making repeated attempts to enter the country may have several “encounters” and be separately logged each time by CBP officials.

CBP statistics therefore cannot be used to show the number of people making “illegal entries” because they have a significant but unknown element of double counting.

For his chart, Pallesen also added in the half-million people who traveled to the US under a Biden-era parole program that applied to four of the six countries. This raised two further problems. One is that, by definition, these entrants to the US were – at the time – perfectly legal. But, more importantly, the CBP had already included these entries in their data showing encounters. So, there was an additional, even bigger element of double counting in Pallesen’s chart.

It is not surprising that Pallesen ended up with huge figures for “illegal entries” over the years in question (2021-24). He must have decided that they would seem even more dramatic if they were expressed as a percentage of each country’s population. This pushed Nicaragua to the top of the chart, whereas in terms of actual numbers of encounters it would be at the bottom.

Pallesen’s X account reveals his motivation in posting such patently bogus data. His screeds are full of anti-immigrant talking points. He has published articles jointly with academics criticized as “eugenicists, or scientific racists” whose work is being “appropriated in the service of alt right and White nationalist ideas.”

The chart may be wildly wrong, but it has served its purpose in feeding an anti-immigrant message. Indeed, it has been reproduced many times, including by Donald Trump Jr who said Pallesen’s chart showed Biden’s policies to have been “absolute insanity.”

In April, Pallesen’s work was examined by the rumor fact-check site Snopes. Analyst Jack Izzo described it as “meaningless” and the chart as full of “flaws.” Expressing the numbers as percentages of each country’s population is the equivalent of “dividing apples by oranges,” he added. The chart has been withdrawn, but Snopes found plentiful examples of it still being used.

The political misuse of data like Pallesen’s is not confined to anti-immigrant nationalists. Similar exaggerated claims are used to criticize the governments of three of the countries from which the migrants originate.

Let’s look first at Nicaragua. An NGO based in Costa Rica claims that an even higher proportion of Nicaragua’s population – 11.6%, equivalent to 800,000 people – left Nicaragua over the period 2018-2025. This NGO has received over $282,000 in US federal grants to create anti-Nicaragua propaganda, so naturally it attributes this exodus to the government’s “systematic repression.”

Prominent opposition figure Manuel Orozco goes further, accusing Nicaragua of the “expulsion of almost a million people between 2018 and 2024” – a startling 15% of the population. As well as emigrants to the US, these figures include a substantial number said to have fled to Costa Rica where 300,000 Nicaraguans have claimed asylum.

The absurdity of these claims in Nicaragua’s case can be demonstrated by simple analysis of the country’s population figures, available in the UN data portal. In 2018, its resident population was 6.4 million; over the period 2018-25, the “natural” population growth (births minus deaths) was 790,000, so without migration the 2025 population would have been 7.2 million. In fact, it was around 180,000–190,000 below that figure, at just over 7 million. The balance is explained by net migration (the difference between people leaving and people entering): at around 180,000–190,000, it was just 3% of the population over a longer period, 2018-25.

The real loss of population is therefore much less than half of Pallesen’s percentage and far below the figures claimed by opposition pundits. Apart from double counting, the main reason for this huge discrepancy is that large numbers of Nicaraguans return home. They do not stay permanently in either the US or Costa Rica. While data for people leaving the US (for example, around 10,000 have been deported by Trump) are only partial, UN figures show that migration to Costa Rica is circular  – as many Nicaraguans leave as enter on a weekly basis.

Another of Pallesen’s claims is that over one million Venezuelans entered the US “illegally” in the four years 2021-25. Writing in the Anti-Empire Project, Joe Emersberger and Justin Podur examine a range of estimates for Venezuelan emigration, including a BBC estimate that over seven million have emigrated since 2015. They conclude that “nobody should accept the migration figures for Venezuela that the western media constantly cites.” They quote a typical US media figure as saying that “the misery and repression that Venezuela has suffered at the hands of Maduro’s dictatorship has caused millions to flee.” Yet analysis by the Centre for Economic and Policy Research shows that four million Venezuelans have emigrated as a direct result of US policy in the form of “sanctions” – unilateral coercive measures imposed by the US and its allies.

Pallesen also suggests that over 800,000 “illegal” entrants to the US since 2021 came from Cuba. Scrutiny of the data suggests that in the period 2021-24 some 600,000 Cubans attempted to enter the US, and many of these will be double-counted or have made failed attempts. However, Cuba’s case is somewhat different because it is not the scale but the reasons for migration that are disputed. Cuban government officials accept analyses by experts such as Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos Espiñeira of the University of Havana, who assesses Cuba’s population loss since the end of 2020 at 10.1 per cent. The primary driver is arguably the enormous damage caused by the six-decade US blockade of the country. Yet academic commentators outside Cuba, such as Agustina Rodríguez Granja, blame migration entirely on the government’s economic mismanagement and on “political repression.”

The real picture then is that migration from Nicaragua is minimal, once returnees are taken into account. In the case of both Venezuela and Cuba, outward migration is very significant, but it is driven by hostile policies pursued by successive US administrations, including Trump’s.

As is clear from his background, Pallesen’s exaggerated claims about “illegal entrants” to the US and their repetition in social media come from anti-immigrant or White supremacist sentiments. Writing in Black Agenda Report, Margaret Kimberley points out that Trump’s immigration enforcement is a doomed attempt “to make America whiter again.” Accepting handfuls of refugees appears to be acceptable, she adds, if they are White people “escaping” South Africa.

Similar claims to Pallesen’s from opponents of socialist governments in Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba have different political perspectives although there may be some degree of overlap. Their attacks on their own countries of origin feed Trump’s narrative about excessive numbers of Latino immigrants in the US. In the case of one of the most prominent opponents of socialist governments, Venezuelan Maria Corina Machado, her support for Trump’s policies was unconditional even when he was illegally deporting her compatriots to prisons in El Salvador.

Migration as an issue has been deeply weaponized. Alarmism about the numbers of migrants who have arrived in the US from Latin American countries has brought together two, previously distinct elements of right-wing politics. Both are purveying myths, not facts, and it is important to challenge them.

Briefs

By Nan McCurdy

269 Bird Species Identified on Migratory Bird Day

In commemoration of World Migratory Bird Day, the Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (MARENA) conducted 24 simultaneous bird sightings and counts nationwide under the theme “Birds of Life and Hope,” identifying many species. Adults, children, youth from the Guardabarranco Environmental Movement, birdwatchers, and specialists took part, for a total of 179 participants. As a result of this initiative, 269 bird species were identified, including the red-fronted parakeet (Psittacara finschi), the zanatillo (Quiscalus nicaraguensis) or Nicaraguan grackle, the guardabarranco (Eumomota superciliosa) or Turquoise-browed Motmot which is Nicaragua’s national bird, as well as various aquatic and raptor bird species. These observations took place in strategic areas, including the Tisma Lagoon System, the Datanlí-El Diablo and Serranía de Yolaina Nature Reserves, as well as the Cerro Negro Volcano, among others. The government, through MARENA, continues to reaffirm its commitment to protecting biodiversity and promoting environmental education for the conservation of migratory birds and their ecosystems. See photos: https://radiolaprimerisima.com/2026/05/12/identifican-269-especies-de-aves-en-avistamientos-y-conteos/ (La Primerisima, 12 May 2026)

Medical Unit Inaugurated at Women’s Prison in Tipitapa

Authorities at the Comprehensive Women’s Correctional Center, located in Tipitapa, Managua, inaugurated a new medical unit to provide specialized care to female inmates. The unit is equipped to provide general medicine, internal medicine, and gynecology services. It also features a room designated for emergency care. Commissioner Rosa Argentina Rojas, director of the Comprehensive Women’s Penitentiary, explained that this new investment is part of restoring the right to physical, mental, and moral integrity to female citizens serving sentences. She explained that coordination is underway with the Ministry of Health (MINSA) to schedule ultrasounds, vaccinations, specialized exams, and dental care. See photos: https://radiolaprimerisima.com/2026/05/12/inauguran-unidad-medica-en-penal-de-mujeres-en-tipitapa/  (La Primerisima, 12 May 2026)

Judge Alba Luz Ramos Vanegas Refutes Opposition Lies

On May 7, Judge Alba Luz Ramos Vanegas, former head of the Nicaraguan Supreme Court and a member of the FSLN since the 1970s, released a statement refuting what she called a “campaign of slander, fake news and media fabrications circulating on digital platforms.” She said that she addressed the people of Nicaragua “to categorically reject the calumnies that seek to tarnish the image of our government, and at the same time smear my honor and that of my family, with the sole purpose of sowing confusion among our people.”

She said that she categorically denied “the malicious claims suggesting that I have left the country or allegedly fled through clandestine operations,” adding that “these stories are nothing more than desperate attacks by those who seek to undermine the peace and institutional framework of our nation.”

Ramos denied that she or any members of her family—including her daughter, nephews, and nieces—have been the subject of “investigations, detentions, or legal proceedings against our persons or property, as has been falsely reported.” She went on to say that “These lies undermine the dignity of people of integrity and seek to sow doubt about the cohesion of our revolution.”

She highlighted her record of more than 40 years of uninterrupted service to the Nicaraguan people and also stated that “My commitment has been, is, and will be to my homeland. My loyalty is unwavering toward our people and their government, the Co-Presidents, Commander Daniel Ortega Saavedra and Comrade Rosario Murillo Zambrana.” She concluded her statement by saying that, “I remain and will continue to remain in my homeland, steadfast in my convictions and fulfilling my commitment for the greater good of Nicaragua.” (Diario La Barricada, 9 May 2026)

SPECIAL SECTION ON NICARAGUA’S FINANCIAL STABILITY

Banking and Financial System Maintains Strong Growth

The Nicaraguan Central Bank (BCN) reported that the country’s banking and financial system (SBF) performed well in March 2026, with double-digit year-over-year growth in both the loan portfolio and public deposits, improved credit quality, high profitability, and liquidity and solvency levels exceeding regulatory limits. According to the banking and financial system indicators published by the BCN, public deposits grew 16.9% year-over-year. The gross loan portfolio increased by 11.6%. Portfolio quality continued to improve: 95.8% of loans are performing, and the delinquency rate stood at a low 1.2%. There are also greater investments in the banking system: Year-to-date, the SBF’s funding was driven primarily by an increase in liabilities to the public of US$409 billion and, to a lesser extent, by an increase in equity of US$466 billion. These funds were allocated primarily to increased investments of US$20 billion and to the growth of the loan portfolio of US$143 billion, in addition to an increase in cash of US$66 billion and a reduction in liabilities to other financial institutions of US$630 million. (Informe Pastran, 8 May 2026)

Fitch Ratings Recognizes Fiscal Progress and Economic Growth

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Nicaragua’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating at ‘B’, with a stable outlook. According to the report, the rating reflects the country’s fiscal and external progress, although it remains constrained by structural and geopolitical vulnerabilities. The rating highlights the prudent fiscal policy that has enabled Nicaragua to record twin surpluses—fiscal and current account—driving the accumulation of international and fiscal reserves. Nicaragua has maintained general government surpluses since 2022, reaching a record 3.5% of GDP in 2025. This result is driven by strong tax revenue—fueled by domestic consumption and tighter fiscal controls—and a lower interest burden, despite a 20% increase in capital investment.  Fitch projects that the surplus will gradually decline to 2.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, amid normalizing growth, rising interest rates, and increased subsidies to absorb the rise in oil prices and prevent impacts on retail prices. Thanks to these surpluses, overall public debt fell to 39.1% of GDP in 2025 from 39.7% in 2024 and is expected to continue declining to 33.9% in 2027, well below the median of 51% for countries rated ‘B.’ In 2025, the government issued 100-year non-negotiable, interest-free bonds equivalent to 4% of GDP to the Central Bank, which helped reduce the share of foreign-currency debt from 92.9% to 83.3%. Real GDP grew 4.9% in 2025, up from 3.6% in 2023, driven mainly by domestic consumption, which Fitch estimates at around 27% of GDP. Public and private investment also contributed positively. For 2026–2027, Fitch anticipates more moderate growth, between 3.5% and 4%. The current account surplus reached a historic high of 9.5% of GDP in 2025. International reserves reached US$9.4 billion in March 2026, covering more than seven months of current external payments—well above the median of 4.4 months for the ‘B’ category—and more than 90% of broad money supply. (Informe Pastran, 8 May 2026)

Nicaragua Stands Out in Latin America with a Record Fiscal Surplus of 3.9%  

According to a Bloomberg Analysis based on ECLAC data (United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean) Nicaragua established itself as one of only two countries in Latin America to end 2025 with a fiscal surplus, reaching a positive 3.9% of GDP.  While the vast majority of regional economies ended the fiscal year with a deficit, Nicaragua not only achieved a balanced budget but also a significant surplus, contrasting with the negative results of nations such as Brazil (-7.5%), Mexico (-3.8%), Colombia (-6.4%), and Costa Rica (-3.4%), among others. Furthermore, Nicaragua recorded the highest primary surplus in the region: 5.3% of GDP, far surpassing Argentina at 2.4%, Costa Rica at 0.9%, El Salvador at 1.0%, and Honduras at 0.8%. This indicator, which measures the balance before debt interest payments, reflects particularly sound and prudent fiscal management. Bloomberg analysts note that these figures confirm Nicaragua’s track record of fiscal discipline in recent years, which has allowed the country to reduce public debt, strengthen reserves, and create room for public investment without compromising the sustainability of state finances. This performance positions Nicaragua as an exceptional case in the Latin American context, where most governments faced greater fiscal pressures stemming from debt payments and lower revenues. (Informe Pastran, 8 May 2026)

Fuel Prices Frozen in Nicaragua While Rising in the Rest of the Region

The Nicaraguan government decided to keep gasoline, diesel, and liquefied gas prices unchanged for the week of May 10–16, 2026, despite the steady rise in international oil prices. In a joint statement from the Nicaraguan Energy Institute (INE) and the Ministry of Energy, it was reported that, by direct instruction from Co-Presidents Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo, the price adjustments that would correspond to international prices will not be applied. In the case of butane gas, the primary fuel for cooking in households, the government guaranteed that prices will remain the same for 10-, 25-, and 100-pound cylinders. This decision represents a policy of subsidies and price freezes that contrasts with the trend observed in most countries in the region and around the world, where governments have been implementing upward adjustments to hydrocarbons and liquefied gas in response to the sustained increase in international prices.(Informe Pastran, 11 May 2026)